As readers of my weblog know, I have been reporting that multi-decadal global climate model forecasts for the coming decades must be tested using hindcast predictions for decades that have already occurred. Bob Tisdale on his weblog Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations
has an excellent such evaluation in his new post
17-Year And 30-Year Trends In Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: The Differences Between Observed And IPCC AR4 Climate Models
His conclusion of this evaluation reads
Comparing the 204-month and 360-month hindcast and projected Sea Surface Temperature anomaly trends of the coupled climate models used in the IPCC AR4 to the trends of the observed Sea Surface Temperature anomalies is yet another way to show the models have … shown no skill at replicating and projecting past and present variations in Sea Surface Temperature on multidecadal bases. Why should we believe they have any value as a means of projecting future climate?
The entire post should be read. I also urge Bob to submit this analysis to a peer-reviewed research journal so it can be assessed by the entire climate community.