A December 10, 2007 BBC news article by Roger Harrabin reported on a preliminary survey that was proposed and conducted by Fergus Brown, and participated in by myself and James Annan, in a December article entitled “Climate change goal ‘unreachable”. I was not the lead person on this study with the credit appropriately due Fergus Brown for this survey.
This news article, while quite good otherwise, also incorrectly stated information when referring to my perspective on climate;
“In a recent survey of climate scientists conducted by a leading sceptical scientist, Dr Roger Pielke Sen, 18% of those who responded said the IPCC had exaggerated.
But 65% said the IPCC had got it right. And 17% said the prognosis was even worse. “
First, I am not a “sceptical scientist” as should be clear to anyone who has read Climate Science, or my 2007 book with Bill Cotton
Cotton, W.R. and R.A. Pielke, 2007: Human impacts on weather and climate, Cambridge University Press, 330 pp.
Humans are significantly altering the global climate, but in a variety of diverse ways beyond the radiative effect of carbon dioxide. The IPCC assessments have been too conservative in recognizing the importance of these human climate forcings as they alter regional and global climate. These assessments have also not communicated the inability of the models to accurately forecast the spread of possibilities of future climate. The forecasts, therefore, do not provide any skill in quantifying the impact of different mitigation strategies on the actual climate response that would occur.
The BBC article also does not use the correct numbers in our survey, although it is correct that a majority of the climate scientists who were surveyed either agree with the 2007 IPPC report conclusion or conclude it is too conservative. A significant minority,however, conclude that the IPCC overstates the focus on the radiative effect of CO2 as a human climate forcing. The BBC also prematurely reported on this survey, and should have waited until it appeared., so that their reporting on it could be 100% accurate.
Climate Science will report soon on this preliminary survey.