Request To Gavin Schmidt To Update Jim Hansen’s Value Of Upper Ocean Heat Storage Rate

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Update May 23 2012:

Gavin has replied to my question to him below.  I have reproduced it here

[Response: There is nothing incorrect about that statement - this was the result reported in Hansen et al (2005) using the GISS-ER model in CMIP3 - and so there is nothing to update. We will be reporting on the new CMIP5 simulations soon. - gavin]

I appreciate the quick answer from Gavin. It further confirms the overprediction of the GISS-ER heat storage rate.

******************Original Post*************

There is a post at Real Climate titled

OHC Model/Obs Comparison Errata

by Gavin Schmidt that corrects the GISS prediction of changes in ocean heat content over time. Gavin is thanked for his honesty and candor. He wrote in response to one of the comments

armando says:

22 May 2012 at 12:11 PM

That must (have) hurt:

[Response: not really. I learnt a long time ago that a) I'm not infallible, and b) that one should never get personally invested in the results of a model. When things work, one should always remain pleasantly surprised, when they don't there is possibly a reason that can found - which may be interesting. This is why science is fun. - gavin]

I agree with Gavin’s response. It is refreshing to see him acknowledge that none of us avoid making mistakes, but that we learn from them, and move forward.

There is also an informative post on Gavin’s errata by Bob Tisdale [also reposted at WUWT]

Corrections to the RealClimate Presentation of Modeled Global Ocean Heat Content

including a challenge to Grant Foster [Tamino] to correct his posts.

I have requested Gavin to also correct the GISS values of diagnosed heat storage rate in the following comment which I have submitted on Real Climate

Gavin – Please (you or Jim) update Jim’s diagnosed value of observed upper ocean heat storage rate in Watts per meter squared that he presented in this communication –

He wrote

“Our simulated 1993-2003 heat storage rate was 0.6 W/m2 in the upper 750 m of the ocean. The decadal mean planetary energy imbalance, 0.75 W/m2, includes heat storage in the deeper ocean and energy used to melt ice and warm the air and land. 0.85 W/m2 is the imbalance at the end of the decade.”


What we should see is a reduced magnitude of warming from what Jim claimed was occurring when he wrote his earlier comment.  I recently have posted on Jim’s predictions; e.g. see

Jim Hansen’s 1981 Model Prediction Needs Scrutiny

where I wrote that

Lets see if Jim, Gavin Schmidt, or other weblogs that communicate his viewpoint, such as Grant Foster at Tamino and Skeptical Science, respond to this observational study that illustrates a substantive disagreement with the climate model prediction of global warming.  So far they have ignored this disparity between the real world and the models.

I am pleased that Gavin has actually responded to this request for further scrutiny.

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