New Paper “Econometrics And The Science Of Climate Change” By Tim Curtin

Tim Curtin has shared with us a new paper that has been accepted. It is

Econometrics and the Science of Climate Change

This has been accepted by the Economic Society of Australia for its annual conference, which this year will be in Canberra (ANU) from 11th to 14th July.

The paper includes the text

“This chapter has produced statistical and econometric analysis showing that the mainstream science of climate change has been too focussed on a single supposed causative agent, carbon dioxide emissions (about 30 GtCO2 p.a), to the serious neglect of the much larger volumes of anthropogenic water vapour produced by the combustion of hydrocarbon fuels, both by direct creation of water vapour in the combustion process (18 GtH2O p.a.), and by the much larger volume of steam created by the power generation process (300 GtH2O). It is true that individual injections of water vapour to the atmosphere have a short residence time there before descending as precipitation (Kelly, 2010), but increases in the average level of [H2O] over a year remain significant.’

“The implications of full accounting for the radiative forcing attributable to anthropogenic water vapour are confounding. On the one hand, it is conceivable that it has been unwittingly included in the radiative forcing ascribed to rising [CO2e], while on the other it may be an addition to that forcing, which would mean that temperature projections are being understated. Alternatively, it may be that the forcing ascribed to positive feedbacks from rising evaporation due to the observed annual global temperature increase of 0.007C p.a., which raises the IPCC‟s projected temperature increase from a doubling of [CO2e] to 3C from the 1C due to [CO2e] alone, despite lack of evidence for this effect, should be reassigned to anthropogenic water vapour.”