My Comment On The Nature Article “Extreme Weather – Better Models Are Needed Before Exceptional Events Can Be Reliably Linked To Global Warming”

As a comment at Nature on the Editorial on 19 September 2012

Extreme weather – Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming Nature 489,335–336(20 September 2012)doi:10.1038/489335b

I posted the following comment –

Roger Pielke Sr said:

I recommend readers read our articles

Pielke Sr., R.A., and R.L. Wilby, 2012: Regional climate downscaling ‘what’s the point?’ Eos Forum, 93, No. 5, 52-53, doi:10.1029/2012EO050008. https://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/r-361.pdf

and

Pielke Sr., R.A., R. Wilby, D. Niyogi, F. Hossain, K. Dairuku, J. Adegoke, G. Kallos, T. Seastedt, and K. Suding, 2012: Dealing with complexity and extreme events using a bottom-up, resource-based vulnerability perspective. AGU Monograph on Complexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences. https://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/r-365.pdf

where we overview the challenges of skillful multi-decadal regional and global climate predictions. Not only must current multi-decadal climate statistics be accurately calculated, but CHANGES in these statistics must be skillful.

As documented in these weblog posts

More CMIP5 Regional Model Shortcomings https://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/09/11/more-cmip5-regional-model-shortcomings/

CMIP5 Climate Model Runs – A Scientifically Flawed Approach. https://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/07/20/cmip5-climate-model-runs-a-scientifically-flawed-approach/

The Hindcast Skill Of The CMIP Ensembles For The Surface Air Temperature Trend –  By Sakaguchi Et Al 2012. https://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/09/19/the-hindcast-skill-of-the-cmip-ensembles-for-the-surface-air-temperature-trend-by-sakaguchi-et-al-2012/

the global models have not yet passed the needed tests.

“Better models are not what is needed, in my view, but a new approach to assess risk from climate and other environmental (and social) threats as we present in our second paper listed above.

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