I was alerted by Erik to a report in Russian on arctic climate – http://onlinereg.ru/chugaev/tez_ipy.pdf
He sent me a google translation for it which I have reproduced below [there are a few errors in the translation, but it is quite clear what they report]. I cannot attest to the robustness of the studies, but am presenting here to make readers aware of them.
The first abstract is [highlight added]
PARTICIPATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE PREPARATION AND CONDUCT OF EVENTS
In the International Polar Year (2007-2008 years)
RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
For Hydrometeorology and Environment of the Russian Federation
RUSSIAN FOUNDATION FOR BASIC RESEARCH
REPORTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE RESULTS OF IPY
SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 1, 2009
The main results of the diagnostic status of water and ice of the Arctic Ocean on the results of field studies in 2007 and 2008.
Frolov, I., IM Ashik, Timokhov LA, Sokolov, VT “Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute ‘
The end of the last century was full of many extraordinary events in the Arctic. In 1989 the regime of atmospheric circulation change in the direction of decreasing index of high-latitude zonation of the circumpolar zone of the northern hemisphere and to increase the frequency of the Arctic anticyclone. Anomalies of mean annual air temperature in the latitudinal band 72-85 ° N in the late 1990s were positive. Changed the sign of the trend average salinity of the surface layer: the Canada Basin salinity in the period 1950-1989. replaced by desalination, and the Transpolar Drift in the area gave way to a freshening of salinity. Arctic sea ice cover, which has increased since the 1960s, at the end of the last century began to decline rapidly. In the period 1989-1993. there was an increase of temperature of Atlantic water in the Arctic Basin of the Arctic Ocean. In the Eurasian subbasin it lasted until the end of the last century, and in the Amerasian sub-basin warming of the 1990s was noted at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Invasion of Atlantic water was so long, and increase their temperature so high that in the context of historical data, it looked like a large positive anomaly. In the late 1990s, there has been some stabilization of the receipt of the Atlantic waters into the Arctic Basin and in the early twenty-first century, it seemed that the natural environment of the Arctic has exhausted its anomalous pulse, and the Arctic climate system is about to begin returning to their former state. However, from 2003-2004., The temperature of Atlantic water in the Eurasian subbasin began to rise to values previously never here observed. Extreme warming of the deep Atlantic waters appeared to be a new step to a warming Arctic. The ensuing summer of 2007 showed that limits the possibility of macroscopic changes, such as air, so the ice and ocean areas in the Arctic has not yet been exhausted. The seasonal cycle in 2007 developed the script, which was not observed in the history of instrumental observations. Changes in the distribution of ice cover, thermohaline structure of the surface layer of the ocean and the thermal state of the Atlantic waters in the Arctic Ocean was so great that they should be classified as major anomalies, and the state of the Arctic Ocean in the summer of 2007 could be called extreme. Obvious was the intense interest with which planned and carried out field research in 2008, the more so this year was the final phase of field-International Polar Year (IPY 2007/2008). In the present report focuses on two main Oceanic structures, the changes which have been particularly impressive in 2007-2008: the surface layer and a layer of water of Atlantic origin. In addition, the report touched upon the state of the intermediate layers, including layers of winter and summer waters of Pacific origin, and the bottom waters.
The second abstact is
The influence of glacial runoff to changes in sea level
VG Konovalov Institute of Geography
In the papers [Fountain et al 2009; Braithwaite, 2009; Zemp et al, 2009], due to the subjective and objective reasons, the unsuitability of measurement set annual mass balance of the “representative glaciers” for a global assessment of the contribution of glacial runoff in the change in sea level. In this regard, the author developed a new method for solving this problem and presents the results of its application as an example of closed (undrained) river basins in the upper Amu Darya. The proposed method involves the following tasks. A. Identification of influencing the level of the ocean component of the annual water balance of river basins. B. Generalization of the sets of glaciers, discretely located in river basins, the characteristic group of objects with a single set of area and altitude-morphological parameters. C. Modelling and calculation of the ice component in the river flows through the catchment water balance equation and an independent assessment of the quality of results. D. Using a set of necessary and sufficient source of meteorological, hydrological and glaciological data to calculate the components of the water balance equation. According to the results of modeling and calculation of the components of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, evaporation, runoff), based on water balance equation shows that the drainage basins of Asia, a potential factor of influence of glaciers to changes in global sea level may be only a seasonal volume of evaporation from the surface of melting ice and the old firn. The volume of evaporation from June to September during 1935-1994 were identified on the glaciers located in the basins of the Vakhsh and Panj (upper Amu Darya). It is established that: a) In general, the amount of evaporation in the 1935-1994 area 5507 km2 was 2.35% of glacial runoff equal to 23.964 km 3, and b) the average for 1965-1994 the volume of runoff relative to evaporation of the glaciers has doubled, compared with the previous thirty years, despite the shrinking of the ice melts and old firn at 18.5% for 1965-1994, c) Because of the reduction of area of glaciers during 1935-1994, their stock on average for 1965-1994 decreased by 25.3% , compared with the previous thirty years. Despite significant changes in the hydrological regime of glaciation, the total seasonal flow of rivers Vakhsh and Panj average for 1935-1964 and 1965-1994 years remained almost constant. The estimates show that the influence of glacial runoff in closed basins in the ocean level is much lower than previously described in the 4th Report of the IPCC.
This work was supported by RFBR grant 08-05-00661.