I want to alert readers of my weblog to a post by Bob Tisdale on his weblog Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations. He has posted another effective analysis of multi-decadal global climate model predictions titled
In Bob’s conclusions, he writes
So what impression is the casual observer left with if he or she were to investigate how well climate models can hindcast and project sea surface temperatures over 17-year periods, a time span that is appears to be acceptable to the who’s-who of climate scientists that helped prepare the Santer et al (2011) paper? Not a very good impression. They can see that the observed Sea Surface Temperature trends and those projected by the climate models only appear to come close to matching one another on a global basis, but that the match is only good for the first 17-year period of the satellite-era Sea Surface Temperature data. They can see that the models do not come close to matching observations in either hemisphere during the first or last 17-year periods.
His analyis and conclusion should be further examined by rigorous statistical analyses such as performed by Lucia Liljegren at The Blackboard. Real Climate or other weblogs that are supportive of these models as having multi-decadal prediction skill should show how Bob’s findings can be refuted.
I would be glad to repost such analyses and their discussion on my weblog.