As mentioned in the post
I am alerting our readers to the availability of the published version of Dave’s paper
D.H. Douglass. The Pacific sea surface temperature. Physics Letters A (2011). doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2011.10.042
The abstract reads
The Pacific sea surface temperature data contains two components: NL, a signal that exhibits the familiar El Niño/La Niña phenomenon and NH, a signal of one-year period. Analysis reveals: (1) The existence of an annual solar forcing FS; (2) NH is phase locked directly to FS while NL is frequently phase locked to the 2nd or 3rd subharmonic of FS. At least ten distinct subharmonic time segments of NL since 1870 are found. The beginning or end dates of these segments have a near one-to-one correspondence with the abrupt climate changes previously reported. Limited predictability is possible.
The Summary of the paper reads
“It is shown that the central Pacific sea surface data consists of two components: NL, a low frequency signal that exhibits the familiar El Niño/La Niña phenomenon and NH, a high frequency signal of one-year period. A surprisingly simple explanation of some of the observed phenomenon comes from an analysis of these signals. In this scenario, a forcing FS of solar origin at a frequency of 1 year−1 exists, which can produce two phase-locked responses: a direct response NH at a frequency of 1 cycle/year and also, because of nonlinear effects, can produce a response NL which may be phase-locked to the 2nd or 3rd subharmonic of FS. At least ten of these subharmonic time segments since 1870 have been identified. The beginnings or ends of these time segments have a near one-to-one correspondence with the eighteen abrupt climate changes previously reported by Douglass .
The well known El Niños of 1973–1974, 1983–1984 and 1997– 1998 are simply a positive cycle of one of the oscillations in particular 3-year period phase-locked segments. If the climate system is known to be in one of these phase-locked states, limited predictability is possible.”