Bob Tisdale has posted a very important preliminary analysis of the skill of a global climate model to predict the behavior of the real-world climate system on his weblog Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations. This comparison is done in hindcast. His post is
This is a very well presented discussion and, in my view, should be submitted for peer reviewed publication. His closing statement in the -post reads
The preliminary look at the hindcasts of the NCAR CCSM4 sheds a different light on the model-based papers of Meehl et al (2011) and Stevenson et al (2011). Those papers are based on a coupled climate model that cannot reproduce essential portions of the 20thCentury Surface Temperature observations.
No matter how well the NCAR CCSM4 can simulate certain aspects and processes of global climate, the fact that it cannot reproduce many portions of the instrument temperature record during the 20thCentury emphasizes failings that call into question its ability to project future global or regional climate change.