On my weblog, I continue to post examples of the misrepresentation of climate predictions decades from now as skillful forecasts for the impact communities. Below, I post yet another example – in this case a seminar presented in mid-June in Boulder. The announcement for the seminar that was held at NOAA’s David Skaggs Research Center reads
Manager of Business Development,
Riverside Technologies, Inc.
THURSDAY, JUNE 16, 10:00 A.m., Room 1D708
Riverside will present a briefing and demonstration of their Climate Change Decision
Support System (CC-DSS). The aim of the CC-DSS, which was supported by a NOAA SBIR,
is to provide a web-based system for widespread and low-cost access to tools used
in generating scenarios of future water managers to rapidly assess the impact of
projected climate change on natural flows at critical nodes along a river network.
The system uses various IPCC driven global climate models that have been downscaled
to basin scales to drive calibrated hydrologic models.
Here is yet another example where
“The system uses various IPCC driven global climate models that have been downscaled
to basin scales to drive calibrated hydrologic models.”
As presented in our paper
Pielke Sr., R.A., R. Wilby, D. Niyogi, F. Hossain, K. Dairuku, J. Adegoke, G. Kallos, T. Seastedt, and K. Suding, 2011: Dealing with complexity and extreme events using a bottom-up, resource-based vulnerability perspective. AGU Monograph on Complexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences, in press
there is no skill in downcaling multi-decadal climate predictions from global climate models. This approach has never been shown capable of predicting changes on this time scale in the statistics of weather on basin scales (or any other spatial scale).
In my view, ultimately, such studies will be recognized as misleading policymakers to the actual threats to water resources. The sooner the funders realize this, the less money and time that will be wasted. It would be an informative research project for someone to document how many NSF, NOAA and other agency funds (in the USA and elsewhere) are being spent to provide such multi-decadal climate forecasts.