Guest Post by Ben Herman of the University of Arizona
The NCAR/UCAR media Office recently released an article by Rachael Drummond entitled
In this article the author presents an impressive list of calamities that are likely to occur based on model predictions, such as flooding of coastal cities, severe droughts and heat waves, increasing frequency of severe storms, etc. all due to global warming. The word “likely” soon gets forgotten in the article and it begins to take on a very decided tone of what “will”occur, and without any references to back the claims up. It is not my purpose here to state that none of the events described in the article will ever happen as I don’t know what the future will bring.
However, most of the predictions the author has stated have certainly been subjected to considerable questioning by very qualified scientists, none of which were pointed out in the article. Scientific predictions are just that, predictions, and until they have been verified, are just that, unverified predictions.
I could add to this list a number of other predictions that have been made by the models that, to date, have not been verified, but that is not my point. There are questions as to the validity of the predictions stated in this article that should have been recognized by the author and at least mentioned in the paper, but none were. I do not believe this is in the best interests of climate science.