Update Of Preliminary Upper Ocean Heat Data Analysis By Josh Willis – “An Unpublished Update”

Josh Willis has sent me the update below on the post

Preliminary Upper Ocean Heat Data Analysis By Josh Willis – “An Unpublished Update”

On Sun, 13 Feb 2011, Josh Willis wrote:

Hi Roger,

Just a quick heads up.  My colleague Greg Johnson pointed out to me that I slightly misquoted he and Sarah Purkey’s deep warming numbers in my email to you that went up on the blog.  The number I sent did not include the warming below 4000 m.  Sorry about that.

The correct number for the deep warming that we are likely missing from Argo-type analyses is 0.095 W/m^2 +/- 0.062 W/m^2, where the error bar is a 95% confidence limit.  So really it should be about 0.1 W/m^2, not 0.07 W/m^2 in the deep ocean.

Also note that this rate probably best represents the rate between the mid-1990s and the mid-2000s.  The rate of deep warming during the late 2000s could very well be different.

Cheers,
Josh

With this update, point three in my original post becomes

3. IF the diagnosed radiative forcing of +0.16 Watts per meter squared in the upper ocean plus the 0.07  0.095 Watts per meter squared below that level (assuming the rates did not change in the later part of the cuurent decade) are robust in the final analysis, the total of 0.23  0.255 Watts per meter squared is significantly below the 0.6 Watts per meter squared predicted by Jim Hansen from the GISS model for the time period 1993 to 2003 (see).

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