Comment On The NCAR June 6 -24 2011 Colloquium Titled “Statistical Assessment of Extreme Weather Phenomena under Climate Change”

In my post yesterday

Summary Of Why Dynamic And Statistical Downscaling Of Multi-Decadal IPCC-type Forecasts Are Misleading The Impacts Community And Policymakers

I concluded

“….neither dynamic downscaling or statistical downscaling from multi-decadal global model projections add spatial or temporal accuracy of value to the impacts community. The global and regional climate models are providing a level of confidence in forecast skill of the coming decades that does not exist. “

An example of misleading the science community with respect to these predictions includes  the NCAR Advanced Study Program Summer Colloquium titled

Statistical Assessment of Extreme Weather Phenomena under Climate Change

which is scheduled for June 6 -24 2011.  This Colloquium has the stated objective of

“Training in use of extreme value analysis to assess how frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme weather events could shift as part of global climate change. “

The topics include

“Extracting extreme events from coarse resolution models that cannot explicitly resolve extremes using techniques such as statistical downscaling”

Students who attend this Colloquium are going to be misled as to what is achievable with statistical downscaling from global climate model multidecadal predictions.  Taxpayer funds are being used to support travel and local expenses for about 25 student participants.

I would, of course, be glad to present and debate with the organizers of the Colloquium [Eric Gilleland, Greg Holland, Rick Katz (NCAR), Arun Kumar (NOAA), Mike Patterson (US CLIVAR), Balaji Rajagopalan (CU Boulder)] my alternate view on the value of downscaling.

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Filed under Climate Science Meetings, Climate Science Misconceptions

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