Upcoming Climate Science Papers

In the coming weeks and months, Climate Science will post information on several new papers from our research group. We have been busy with research studies while Climate Science was not actively updated. Among the research findings of our papers are:

1. We have used observational data of long term temperature trends at 2 heights near the surface to show that these trends are different at night under light winds. This raises serious questions regarding David Parker’s papers that light and stronger wind temperature trend data were found to be the same. Parker’s conclusions were a major finding in the 2007 IPCC report that is used to claim there are no differences in trends between urban and rural sites.

2. We have used the North American Regional Reanalysis to document that while tropospheric temperature trends have been positive over the last several decades, the water vapor content of the troposphere has been essentially constant. This raises questions on the model simulations which predict a constant relative humidity with increases in tropospheric temperatures.

3. In a preliminary poll of climate scientists, we have found that a significant minority disagree with the 2007 IPCC conclusions, either concluding that is it too conservative with respect to the risk of human-CO2 caused climate change, or overstates the relative role of this specific climate forcing.

4. We have shown in several studies that the downscaling of multi-year global model predictions by regional climate models is very strongly dependent on the lateral boundary conditions of the parent model. That the regional model is not substantially independent from the parent model means that claims of added regional predictive skill in coming decades using dynamic downscaling needs to be examined further before this approach is considered robust.

5. We have identified a wide range of issues with using the near-surface global average temperatures to assess the radiative imbalance of the Earth’s climate system. The implication from several of the problems with this data set is that the warming in recent years has been overstated. Indeed, for a global average near surface temperature to be used to diagnose the Earth’s radiative imbalance, this temperature must be a thermodynamic proxy for the thermodynamic state of the earth system. As such, it must be tightly coupled to that thermodynamic state. We show that, particularly for nighttime and high latitude winter land temperatures (which are used in the construction of a global average surface temperature), it is not closely coupled.

6. The European heat wave of 2003 is further shown to be a shallow atmospheric event, in terms of its extreme anomaly, and cannot be directly attributed to the radiative forcing of added CO2. Dry soils in Europe during this event seem to be a major reason for its extreme heat near the surface.

Climate Science will provide details on these and other results, as the papers are published, or we otherwise decide to disseminate.

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