Professor Will Alexander alerted me to a presentation he will be giving in Pretoria in October titled
Water resource management during prolonged drought periods [there is no url for it, but it can be obtained by requesting from Professor Alexander at firstname.lastname@example.org].
WJR (Will) Alexander is Professor Emeritus of the Department of Civil Engineering of the University of Pretoria, South Africa, and Honorary Fellow of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering. Other posts on his perspective appear in
He clearly has the credentials to present his viewpoint on climate science.
His article starts with [highlight added]
South Africa’s surface water resources are rapidly approaching depletion. It is essential that practitioners in these fields should have an advanced knowledge of multi-site, multi-year, periodical hydrological statistics and practical experience in these fields. Details are provided in the author’s substantial handbook on analytical methods for water resource development and management that will be distributed during the symposium.
The text includes his sobering assessment that
The following diagram shows the projected future water demand in South Africa in relation to available conventional resources. It is based on estimates by du Plessis and van Robbroeck in 1978. These estimates have been confirmed by other investigators. The diagram shows that usage will exceed the economically available runoff before the year 2020. It also shows that by 2050 the demand will exceed the total runoff from all South African rivers!
He further writes that
I cannot emphasise strongly enough, that attempts to apply climate change theory before and during drought conditions will have disastrous consequences on the welfare of this country and its poor and disadvantaged peoples for whom I have the greatest concern….
South Africa and its peoples face severe humanitarian, social and economic consequences as a result of this thoroughly unscientific policy.
The entire preprint can be obtained from Professor Alexander at email@example.com