September 23 2011 Update On The Real Climate Post “More Bubkes” Of July 1 2009

Today, I want to update the information regarding three climate metrics that Real Climate presented in response to my post

Real Climate’s Misinformation

on July 1 2009  in their post More Bubkes (h/t to Skeptical Science). 

 For those not familiar with the word “bubkes”, it is defined as (from)

“the least amount : beans <won’t win bubkes this year — Ivan Maisel>; also : nothing <received bubkes for their efforts>

with its history

Origin of bubkes

Yiddish (probably short for kozebubkes, literally, goat droppings), plural of bubke, bobke, diminutive of bub, bob bean, of Slavic origin; akin to Polish bóbbean

First Known Use: 1942

Real Climate writes in their post (referring to the Synthesis Report of the Copenhagen Climate Congress)

1. Sea level. The Synthesis Report shows the graph below and concludes:

Since 2007, reports comparing the IPCC projections of 1990 with observations show that some climate indicators are changing near the upper end of the range indicated by the projections or, as in the case of sea level rise (Figure 1), at even greater rates than indicated by IPCC projections.

The September 2011 update:

The latest sea level data from the University of Colorado is reproduced below.

It certainly looks like the models are not skillfully predicting the current changes in sea level. The rate is certainly not greater than the IPCC projections.

2. Ocean heat content. The Synthesis Report states:

Current estimates indicate that ocean warming is about 50% greater than had been previously reported by the IPCC.

The September 2011 update:

The 2011 update documents the absence of substantial upper ocean heating since 2003. This lack of heating is much less than the IPCC reported.

Global Ocean Heat Content 1955-present

This heat may be deeper in the ocean as hypothesized by Meehl and colleagues (e.g. see), but the observed trend in the upper ocean heat content is not consistent with the claim in the Synthesis Report.

3. Arctic Sea Ice. The Synthesis Report states:

One of the most dramatic developments since the last IPCC Report is the rapid reduction in the area of Arctic sea ice in summer. In 2007, the minimum area covered decreased by about 2 million square kilometres as compared to previous years. In 2008, the decrease was almost as dramatic.

September 2011 update: The Synthesis report is correct regarding this trend

Thus Real Climate in their post More Bubkes was correct in only one out of three of their examples to support the claim that

“Some aspects of climate change are progressing faster than was expected a few years ago – such as rising sea levels, the increase of heat stored in the ocean and the shrinking Arctic sea ice.”

Seems like the “bubkes” belong to Real Climate. :-)

Comments Off

Filed under Climate Change Metrics

Comments are closed.