New Report On The Lack Of Recent Global Warming

There is an interesting article on at MSNBC from the Discovery Channel titled

“Warming might be on hold, study finds Authors sense hibernation, but warn of ‘explosive’ rise later”

by Michael Reilly.

This article finally (although implicitly) acknowledges in the media that there a substantive issue with the predictions of the IPCC and CCSP models.

It includes the revealing comments that

“according to a new study, global warming may have hit a speed bump and could go into hiding for decades.”

and

 “It is possible that a fraction of the most recent rapid warming since the 1970’s was due to a free variation in climate,” Isaac Held of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton, New Jersey wrote in an email to Discovery News. “Suggesting that the warming might possibly slow down or even stagnate for a few years before rapid warming commences again.”

Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years. But he warned that it’s just a hiccup, and that humans’ penchant for spewing greenhouse gases will certainly come back to haunt us.

“When the climate kicks back out of this state, we’ll have explosive warming,” Swanson said. “Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive.”

First, these statements clearly indicate that the IPCC and CCSP global model predictions (which are being used as the basis for making expensive and difficult to implement government policies) are seriously flawed. 

Second, the authors are inaccurately reporting on climate physics, as they claim that “Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive”. This statement, unfortunately, incorrectly assumes that the heat for these 30 years would accumulate in a hidden location (i.e. “unrealized heat) and then suddenly reappear after this time period.

As was discussed yesterday on Climate Science in the weblog Is There Climate Heating In “The Pipeline”? , however, this is an inaccurate statement on how the climate system actually works. If the heating were to suspend for 30 years, and then recommenced, the rate of heating would be determined by the radiative imbalance at that time.

Finally, if the global heating continues to remain suspended (for whatever reason) in the coming years, it will seriously damage the credibility of the climate science community as represented by IPCC and CCSP assessments.

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